Abstracts Earth and Environmental Sciences

Dairy Futures of Oregon

by Lillian Weaver

Livestock agriculture provides society with many forms of nutritious, accessible, and delicious foods. On the other hand, livestock agriculture, and cattle in particular, have been shown to be unsustainable in their current form from environmental, social, and economic perspectives. Taking both of these statements as my premise, in this thesis I turn to the field of Future Studies to explore future of dairy farming in Oregon. I use semi-structured stakeholder interviews to understand industry stakeholder perceptions of plausible and desirable futures for the industry. The concepts of plausible and desirable futures are strongly connected to sustainable futures as they look both at what is possible for the future and consider the normative question of what is valued. I used thematic analysis to explore my data, identifying salient ideas and patterns from my interviews with stakeholders. I found three plausible-desirable outcomes for the Oregon dairy industry; human and animal welfare improve, some small and medium sized farm stay afloat, and the industry reduces its environmental impact. These outcomes were not straightforward, however. For example, in some cases, the paths participants identified to reach one plausible-desirable outcome, would make another less likely to occur. The public and farmers themselves were seen as key to reaching plausible-desirable futures, along with scientists, researchers, and interest groups. Identifying stakeholders’ plausible and desirable futures and influential actors to reach these futures is a first step towards developing strategies to reach such futures.